The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) reported approximately 332,000 applications for international protection in the EU+ during the first half of 2026, a 17% year-on-year decline and the lowest first-half total since 2021. Afghans filed roughly 39,000 applications, while Venezuelans filed about 33,000; 93% of Venezuelan claims were lodged in Spain. The overall first-instance recognition rate was 31%.

At the same time, the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum began applying on 12 June 2026. Regulation (EU) 2024/1348 introduces accelerated examination in defined circumstances, including for applicants from nationalities whose EU-wide recognition rate is 20% or lower.

The 20% threshold changes procedure, not the legal question

The threshold can influence the route and speed of a case. It does not answer the central question of asylum law: whether this particular person faces persecution or serious harm if returned.

The Regulation expressly recognises that a country-wide rate may fail to reflect the protection needs of a specific category of applicants. That safeguard matters for people whose risk differs sharply from the national average.

Why LGBTQ+ applicants may not fit the national average

Regulation (EU) 2024/1347 requires an assessment of individual circumstances and expressly refers to gender, gender identity and sexual orientation. These characteristics may also be relevant when determining membership of a particular social group.

A transgender applicant, an LGBTQ+ activist or a person targeted by family members, police, political actors or organised groups may therefore have a protection profile that is not reflected in the overall recognition rate for their nationality.

Venezuela shows why percentages need legal context

Venezuelans had an EU-level recognition rate of roughly 2% in 2025. Yet the EUAA explains that Spain granted national forms of protection to many Venezuelans who were not counted as positive international-protection decisions. The statistical rate therefore measures a specific legal category rather than every form of protection actually granted.

The EUAA’s 2026 country information on Venezuela also documents continuing risks affecting LGBTQ+ people. Country information is most useful when it is connected to the applicant’s individual history rather than treated as a substitute for it.

Zackary Elías Morales: faster procedures make documentation more important

Zackary Oriel Elías Morales, a trans rights activist, Director of Asociación Silueta X and human-rights advocate, frames the reform around a basic legal distinction: a procedural shortcut cannot become a shortcut in the assessment of risk.

For LGBTQ+ applicants, this means documenting the chronology of persecution, threats or violence; explaining the response—or failure to respond—of public authorities; and using current, reliable country-of-origin evidence to show why the person’s circumstances may differ from the national average.

Non-refoulement remains in force

The principle of non-refoulement remains a central legal safeguard. The 1951 Refugee Convention and the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights prohibit return in circumstances where protected forms of persecution or serious harm are established.

No country letter, report or institutional document can guarantee asylum. Their legitimate purpose is to help present verifiable facts and country conditions that an asylum authority is required to consider.